The initial loss is actually not that terrible.
Text｜Edited by Mei Xukang丨Zhang Yuzhe
Source: Yiou.com
In March 2022, Wei Lai completed its listing in Hong Kong, and Wei Xiaoli, the top three of the new forces, completed the gathering of Hong Kong stocks and started a new round of competition.
Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal have different price ranges and different consumer groups, and the relationship between the "heads" of the three car companies who are also from the Internet is not bad. But the industry will still naturally compare the three.
In addition to the close sales level, Wei Xiaoli's establishment time is also close, and it is currently the only new car-making force that has landed in the secondary market. It is also listed on both the US and Hong Kong stocks. More importantly, compared with the previous players, Wei Xiaoli has adopted a new model of "unprecedented" to seize the market.
NIO's services, Xiaopeng's intelligent technology, and ideal extended-range electric vehicles are all new heights that traditional car companies have not reached before. The different labels are also because the three face different markets. Weilai uses services to snatch the market from BBAs. Xiaopeng attracts young people with "geek spirit" with intelligence, and ideals rely on "oil and electricity". Impress the hearts of "Dads".
Which model is more effective in the new era of smart electric vehicles in the automotive industry? Who can impress more users? What kind of car is more profitable? A large number of friends and businessmen hope to find the answer from Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal who have gone earlier, more personalized, and more recognized by fans.
As of the end of March, the financial reports of the three major new car manufacturers have been announced. In this first hard data comparison, who wins and who loses? Maybe everyone has their own different answers.
Losing more and more, burning money endlessly
The financial report data shows that in 2021, Weilai's total revenue is 36.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.3%; Ideal's total revenue is 27.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.6%; Xiaopeng's total revenue is 20.99 billion yuan, ranking No. 1 among the three Third, the year-on-year growth rate reached 259.1%, ranking first.
Among them, as the main revenue, Weilai ranked first with 33.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.5%; Ideal ranked second with 26.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.5%; Xiaopeng ranked third with 20.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase 261.3%;
Although Weilai still ranks first in terms of total revenue and auto revenue, in terms of growth rate, Xiaopeng and Ideal have a more impressive performance.
As for the loss situation that the market is most concerned about, for the whole year of 2021, the ideal net loss is 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112%; Weilai has a net loss of 4.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24%; Xiaopeng has a net loss of 4.86 billion yuan Ranked first, with a year-on-year increase of 78%.
Both Ideal and Xpeng have further expanded their net losses. Xiaopeng said that this was mainly due to the increase in research and development, marketing, promotion and advertising expenses, as well as the increase in the cost of the sales network and a large number of related personnel and the increase in sales commissions from franchised dealerships. The ideals are for similar reasons.
Although Ideal’s losses have expanded, its 320 million yuan loss is almost insignificant compared to the over 4 billion yuan losses of Weilai and Xiaopeng. And in the fourth quarter of 2021, Ideal also achieved a quarterly profit, and it seems that the annual net profit is not far away.
According to market expectations, with the increase in car delivery and profitability, the new car manufacturers will gradually end the state of burning money. However, rising costs, insufficient supply of upstream parts, and increased rates in marketing and other aspects have limited the profitability of car companies, so the data on gross profit has a certain reference value.
In terms of overall gross profit, Weilai ranked first with a gross profit of 6.82 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 264.1%; ideal gross profit of 5.76 billion yuan, ranked second, with a year-on-year increase of 271.9%; Xiaopeng gross profit of 2.62 billion yuan ranked third, but A year-on-year increase of 885.9%;
In terms of the gross profit of the automobile business, the gross profit of NIO’s automobile business was 6.65 billion yuan, ranking first, with a year-on-year increase of 245.3%; the ideal automobile business gross profit was 5.37 billion yuan, ranking second, with a year-on-year increase of 253.7%; Xiaopeng’s automobile gross profit was 2.31 billion yuan. Ranked third, but with the fastest growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 1076.4%;
From the perspective of gross profit margin, in 2021, Weilai and the ideal automobile gross profit margin will be 20.1% and 20.6%, respectively, in a stalemate. In contrast, Xiaopeng's annual automobile gross profit margin is 11.5%.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the gross profit margins of NIO and Ideal Auto both increased month-on-month, while Xiaopeng decreased by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter. This is also the first time that Xiaopeng has experienced negative growth in gross profit margin since 2019.
In addition to the increase in raw material costs and the shortage of parts, the main reason for the decline in Xiaopeng's gross profit margin is the change in its product mix. Xiaopeng's P5 model with lower gross profit margins accounted for 18.3% of sales in the fourth quarter from less than 1% in the third quarter. Compared with the P7, the price of the P5 is lower, but the growth in sales volume is not enough to support the increase in its gross profit margin. , the sales volume of the higher-priced P7 dropped to 51%, making the overall gross profit margin relatively lower.
He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, emphasized at the financial report performance meeting that the gross profit margin of new models, including the G9, and the company's overall gross profit margin will be structurally improved.
Xiaopeng G9 / source: Xiaopeng Motors official
Xpeng Motors' mid- and long-term goal is to increase the company's overall gross profit margin to more than 25%. And with the help of economies of scale and operating leverage, various expense ratios have continued to decline.
In terms of cash reserves, the financial report data shows that as of December 31, 2021, NIO’s cash reserves were 55.4 billion yuan, and the total cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, time deposits and short-term investments of Ideal Motors was 50.16 billion yuan. Peng Auto's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were 43.54 billion yuan.
The losses are endless, but Wei Xiaoli is not short of money, just when will the money-burning war stop?
Li Bin, chairman and CEO of Weilai, said in the earnings conference call: "We set Q4 in 2023 as the goal of quarterly profit balance, and we hope to achieve profitability in the whole year of 2024." Whether this goal can be achieved will also be marked. a question mark.
Overall, Xiaopeng ranks at the bottom of the three in terms of revenue, net profit and gross profit margin, but the overall growth rate ranks first. Weilai's data is relatively ideal, and the growth rate has slowed down. Ideal may turn losses into profits as soon as possible.
In the final analysis, sales are still king, and car sales are the biggest indicator of Wei Xiaoli's profit dream.
Sales are king, who is the most innovative
In fact, among the three Wei Xiaoli companies, although Xiaopeng ranks third in terms of financial data, in terms of sales, Xiaopeng has completed a counterattack.
In 2021, Xiaopeng's sales will increase by 263% year-on-year to 98,200 units, surpassing Weilai in one fell swoop and becoming the sales champion of new car manufacturers. During the same period, NIO sold 91,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 109.1%; Ideal delivered 90,500 units with only one model, a year-on-year increase of 177.4%.
Entering 2022, NIO’s sales have also been overtaken by Xiaopeng and Ideal for two consecutive months.
At this time, the second-tier new forces are also pressing step by step. Nezha’s sales in 2021 will reach 69,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 362%; WM Motor’s delivery volume will be 44,200 units, close to the total of the past three years, a year-on-year increase of 96.3%; Leapmotor has delivered a total of 43,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase 443%.
At the financial report meeting, Wei Xiaoli had an outlook on his own sales in the first quarter.
Xpeng's forecast for the first quarter is that vehicle deliveries will range from 33,500 to 34,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 151.1% to 154.9%. Ideal expects vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 30,000 to 32,000 units, an increase of 138.5% to 154.4% from the first quarter of 2021. The ideal is not far from Xpeng's first-quarter target.
NIO's forecast for delivery in the first quarter is significantly lower, at 25,000-26,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%-29.6%. Based on the current sales trend, the sales growth of NIO's older models has been weak, and it is normal for NIO to have low expectations for current sales growth.
In 2021, Wei Xiaoli has increased investment in research and development: Weilai's research and development expenses increased by 84.6% year-on-year to 4.59 billion yuan; ideal research and development expenses were 3.29 billion yuan, an increase of 198.8% year-on-year; Xiaopeng Motors' research and development expenses were 4.11 billion yuan Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.4%.
From the perspective of the proportion of R&D in revenue, the ideal is 12.2%, NIO is 12.7%, and Xiaopeng is the highest at 19.6%.
Thanks to its long-term investment in research and development, NIO will start the delivery of a number of new models in 2022. The delivery of the NIO smart electric flagship sedan ET7 started on March 28, and the medium-sized smart electric coupe ET5 is expected to start delivery in September 2022. According to the plan, NIO's medium and large SUV model ES7 will be delivered in the third quarter.
In addition to the launch of new models, in 2022, NIO will place more emphasis on the construction of service and energy-replenishing networks.
According to the financial report data, as of now, NIO has built 46 NIO centers and 341 NIO spaces, covering 155 cities; at the same time, it has built 60 NIO service centers and 179 authorized service centers, covering a total of 146 cities. .
In 2022, NIO will continue to expand its sales and service network in China, and plans to add no less than 100 sales outlets and more than 50 NIO service centers and authorized service centers throughout the year.
Xpeng Motors will launch two new model platforms and their first models in 2023, namely the C-segment vehicle platform and the B-segment vehicle platform. In 2022, Xpeng Motors' first five-seat mid-to-large SUV, the Xpeng G9, is progressing smoothly. The PT production prototype has been rolled out of the factory and will be officially launched in the third quarter. He Xiaopeng emphasized that this car will help Xiaopeng Motors increase its gross profit margin.
In 2021, Xiaopeng will focus on intelligence. He Xiaopeng introduced the core function of XPILOT3.5 - the research and development of urban NGP is progressing smoothly. Xiaopeng Motors plans to launch urban NGP in the first batch of cities by the end of the second quarter of 2022, and will launch XPILOT 4.0 on at least 4 of its models in 2023 to realize intelligent assisted driving in high-speed and full-scenario cities.
Lixiang is gradually breaking away from the state of winning the world with Lili ONE, and is currently developing its second-generation extended-range electric vehicle platform (X platform) and two high-voltage pure electric platforms (Whale platform and Shark platform).
In 2022, Ideal will build a new large-scale extended-range electric SUV model L9 (code-named X01) based on the X platform. A number of official information has been announced, and it is planned to be released in the second quarter and delivery will begin in the third quarter. In addition to L9, Li Auto will launch X02, X03 and other extended-range models in the future, which may be launched in 2022-2023. In addition, from 2023, Lili expects to launch at least two pure electric models every year.
In terms of factory capacity construction, all three Wei Xiaoli have made progress.
At present, the Zhaoqing plant of Xiaopeng Motors has realized the parallel production of the P7, G3i and P5 models. At the same time, the company has launched the second-phase expansion project of the Zhaoqing plant, which is expected to increase its production capacity from 100,000 to 200,000 in the first half of 2022.
The current production capacity of Weilai mainly relies on the Hefei foundry of Jianghuai Automobile. The production line upgrade of JAC Weilai's Hefei advanced manufacturing base is in progress. It is expected that in mid-2022, its full-line production capacity will reach 60JPH. The company's second production base in Hefei Xinqiao Intelligent Automobile Industrial Park is also planned according to the production capacity of 60JPH, and it is planned to be officially put into operation in the third quarter.
Li Auto is advancing the expansion of the second phase of the Changzhou plant and is expected to increase its production capacity to 200,000 units per year in 2022. In October 2021, Li Auto announced that its Beijing Green Smart Factory officially started construction in Shunyi District, Beijing. The entire project has invested more than 6 billion yuan. It is planned to be put into operation by the end of 2023. After it is put into production, the first phase will achieve an annual output of 100,000 vehicles. Production capacity of pure electric vehicles.
In addition, Li Auto disclosed in its financial report that it will build a third factory in Liangjiang New District, Chongqing.
Traditional car companies, speed up the turn
At present, Wei Xiaoli and other new car-making forces have gradually increased their voices in the automotive market. In just a few years, its market value has soared, leaving many established traditional car companies behind. While making capital frenzied, the emergence of new forces is also driving the market to reconstruct the valuation logic for car companies.
Compared with traditional car companies, there may be certain advantages in terms of Internet genes, new marketing methods, novel product positioning, electrification, and intelligent technologies of new car manufacturers. , production experience and quality control are even better.
The towering trees that have been cultivated for many years cannot be shaken by the new forces of car-making at one time.
On March 23, Geely also released its 2021 financial report showing that the company's annual revenue increased by 10.3% year-on-year to 101.6 billion yuan, exceeding the sum of the three Wei Xiaoli companies. At the same time, the company's net profit also reached 4.35 billion yuan, almost equal to Weilai's loss.
In terms of car sales, in 2021, Geely will sell 1.328 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of only 0.6%. The sales data of Geely Auto from 2018 to 2021 are: 1.501 million, 1.362 million, 1.32 million and 1.328 million, showing a certain downward trend.
Even so, the sales of new car-making forces such as Wei Xiaoli are still less than a fraction of Geely's. Although Wei Xiaoli's sales have grown over the years, they are still working hard to break the 100,000 mark.
In addition, at the annual financial report meeting, Geely Auto announced that in 2022, intelligence and new energy will be the focus of product layout.
At present, Geely Automobile has four major brands, namely Geely, Lynk & Co, Geometry and Extreme Krypton, covering traditional fuel vehicles and hybrid and pure electric new energy vehicles. Geometry and Extreme Krypton are positioned as mid-to-high-end new energy brands. Not only Geely, but also the new energy brands of traditional car companies such as BAIC Jihu have entered the mid-to-high-end market, and will further seize the mid-to-high-end new energy vehicle space on which Wei Xiaoli depends.
Extremely Krypton 001 / Source: Extremely Krypton Auto Official
Wei Xiaoli's future is not limited to the mid-to-high-end market. Taking NIO as an example, although NIO and Geely have different brand positioning and model prices, the broad mid-to-low-end mass market is still an important part of NIO.
In the earnings conference call, Li Bin also said that the business work of the new brand for the mass market is progressing smoothly, the core team has been established, the strategic direction and development plan have been clarified, and the first batch of products has entered the key research and development stage.
Traditional car companies and Wei Xiaoli will inevitably fight on different battlefields.
Even in the aspect of intelligent technology that Wei Xiaoli is proud of, old car companies such as Geely and SAIC have already been making layouts, and they have gradually seen output in recent years.
Although traditional car companies face many difficulties in turning an elephant, Wei Xiaoli faces no less problems than traditional car companies.
In addition to years of losses, Wei Xiaoli has to face the close pursuit of second-tier new forces. New energy leading brands such as BYD and Tesla are showing a trend of swallowing the market cake, and the old car companies are chasing and blocking.
With the further deepening of the transformation and transformation of traditional car companies, coupled with the continuous entry of Internet car manufacturers, new car manufacturers must speed up product layout and intelligent electric technology research and development if they want to maintain their former glory, and wait until traditional car companies adapt. In the market, it is hard to say who wins and who loses.
Second-tier new forces, traditional car companies, Tesla, none of the companies are willing to hand over the market to others.
Epilogue
Wei Xiaoli in 2021 seems to be generally stable and improving, but hidden worries remain. The competition between the new car-making forces is not small, and it is not easy to judge who wins and who loses. Weilai has the highest revenue, Xiaopeng has the largest sales, and Ideal has the least loss.
Temporary losses are not important, the important thing is not to lose in a stable future.
Fortunately, the three major car companies have huge capital reserves and good gross profit performance, and will continue to remain competitive in the short term. While vigorously promoting the increase in delivery, the three new car manufacturers are still accelerating their R&D investment to lay out the future, and have not disrupted the rhythm due to losses.
Today, a year later, when we look back at 2022, when the new car-making forces have gone through, will the ranking of the three new car-making forces be "Wei Xiaoli" or "Xiao Liwei"? There is still no precise answer yet, but so what.
The current victory and defeat can only show the different rhythms of "Wei Xiaoli" in stages. He Xiaopeng once said that around 2025, the time window for this round of car manufacturing will gradually close. At that time, we will break the winner and lose again
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